4 Early Warning Signs Your Startup Is Heading for Failure

This article is based on a Raw Startup video. Please find a link to the video at the bottom of this article.

Most startups fail, but it's actually possible to see very early on if a startup is going to fail or not. As the founder of Vivino and having spoken to hundreds of founders, I've seen clear patterns and signs of behavior that always lead to failure. Here are exactly what those signals are, what behaviors to change to radically increase your chances of success, and even a score to show you exactly where you are.

This is not about general startup risks like market size and value proposition. This is about the specific behavior of the founder.

Warning Sign #1: Releasing Surveys, Pilots and Betas Instead of Releasing a Product

Stop doing surveys, pilots, and betas. Instead, commit to actually building a product and releasing it. This is a startup - there will be risks. You cannot check all the boxes. There will be unknowns, lots of unknowns. Get used to it.

The founders that release often and early will win. The founders that just do research and never release will lose. Simple as that. This is about committing. You have to commit, and you don't commit by releasing another pilot. Tell the world you're committing by releasing. This shows courage, and founders need courage.

Warning Sign #2: Talking at Conferences Instead of Talking to Real Customers

It's great - you get to fly to Lisbon, speak at huge conferences, meet cool people. Pretty amazing. You tell yourself that you talk to all these people and it's really helping your startup. Maybe it is, but probably not.

Here's the problem: It's highly unlikely you're speaking to the right people. You need to talk to real and relevant customers right now, not fly anywhere. Don't waste your time speaking into a megaphone where very few people are actually relevant. Founders that do this too much never find the real customers.

Warning Sign #3: Focus on Vanity Instead of Focus on Reality

Vanity is press, podcasts, and awards. This is tempting, but at the early stage, it just isn't the best use of your time. Reality is real numbers:

• Are we getting any new users?
• Are we getting new buyers?
• Are they staying?

I know this isn't as cool as posting on LinkedIn about your latest podcast interview. Sorry, but that's the way it is. Most press and awards will do nothing for you until you have a great product. Focus on building that product instead of chasing attention that won't really help you.

Look at Theranos and Elizabeth Holmes - nobody got more press than her 10 years ago. She was on the front page of every business magazine in the world but never built a product. And it all fell apart. If she had focused on reality instead of vanity, maybe she would have made it.

Warning Sign #4: Working On and Off Instead of Working Consistently

Your startup needs your full attention or you will not win. Startups that are stop-and-go, where the founder takes breaks and comes back, never work. Sorry. Startups need your constant attention. Momentum is key and it needs to be constant.

There are many reasons for this, but if you are stop-and-go, so will everyone around you. If you don't have a sense of urgency, why would investors, co-founders, or employees have any sense of urgency? As an investor, I could just wait a bit because you're on and off anyway. You're killing that FOMO.

If you have a good idea but move slowly, someone else will see it, move faster, and win. If you have a bad idea, it just disappears. Either way, you won't get there.

Score Your Startup

The key thing here is that all of these behaviors can be changed. All you have to do is change that behavior and you're back on track. Let's see if a change is needed.

Start with a score of zero. Give yourself:

• +1 for each behavior on the right (good behaviors)
• -1 for each behavior on the left (warning signs)

Scoring Guide:

• +4: Perfect execution
• 0 or above: On track
• Below 0: Time to change your behavior

Remember: Be honest with yourself when scoring. The only way this works is if you're really honest. Now stop reading and go build something - and release it!

Watch the full Raw Startup video: